Bull Market Crossroads: What Bitcoin Needs for Its Next Breakout

Bitcoin's recent rally to $112,000 has entered a consolidation phase, with analysts identifying three critical factors that could determine whether the cryptocurrency breaks into new all-time highs. The convergence of technical indicators, onchain metrics, and market structure suggests BTC stands at a pivotal moment in its 2025 bull cycle.

MVRV Momentum: The Hidden Bull Market Barometer

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, currently at 2.22, shows slowing momentum despite Bitcoin's 50% rebound from April lows. CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei_dent notes this typically signals the transition to a bull market's late phase, though historical patterns suggest room for growth before reaching overvalued territory (MVRV >3.7).

【Critical Insight】: Previous cycles show MVRV acceleration between 2.5-3.0 often precedes major breakouts. The current 7-day transfer volume drop of 32% to $52 billion contrasts sharply with late-May's $76 billion peak, creating what Glassnode calls a "demand vacuum" that needs filling.

The $110K Conundrum: Breaking Through the Wall

TradingView charts reveal a stubborn resistance cluster between $108,000-$110,000, where——according to AlphaBTC——"liquidity pools resemble a magnet." Three distinct analytical approaches converge on this threshold:

• Technical: Rekt Capital identifies it as the last major weekly resistance
• Onchain: Glassnode notes spot volume remains 40% below previous ATH rallies
• Behavioral: MN Capital observes derivative open interest clustering at $109K

Volume Revival: The Missing Catalyst

The current $7.7 billion daily spot volume pales against this cycle's peaks, creating what market insights platform Alva describes as "a technical stalemate." Notably, the 50-day SMA at $106,000 now acts as dynamic support, while:

• ETF inflows continue an 11-day streak totaling $588 million
• Miner selling remains subdued at just 150 BTC from "Satoshi-era" wallets
• Exchange reserves hit 10-year lows, reducing immediate sell pressure

——"This isn't about if Bitcoin breaks $112K, but when the volume returns to validate it,"—— asserts a pseudonymous analyst at CryptoQuant. The coming weeks may determine whether this consolidation becomes a springboard or stumbling block for BTC's price discovery phase.