Market Sentiment Shifts as Bitcoin Holders Resist Selling Pressure

Bitcoin's path to $120,000 appears increasingly plausible as exchange inflow data reveals weakening sell-side pressure. CryptoQuant reports Binance's 30-day moving average BTC inflows have dropped to 【5,147 BTC】 - less than half the volume recorded during December 2024's bear market phase when prices traded below $100,000. This divergence between rising prices and declining exchange deposits suggests long-term holders are accumulating rather than taking profits.

The Inflow/Outflow Ratio Telling a Bullish Story

Researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlights a critical metric: Bitcoin's inflow/outflow ratio currently mirrors levels seen during the early 2024 bull market. ——This pattern historically precedes significant price appreciation—— as demand outstrips available supply. The current 30-DMA inflow figure represents just 21% of panic-selling volumes witnessed during the 2022 FTX collapse, indicating remarkably different market psychology.

Technical Patterns Echo Previous Breakout Signals

Three consecutive daily closes above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) have caught analysts' attention. Crypto trader Ibrahim Cosar observes this technical reclaim often triggers 【10-20%】 upward moves. The chart pattern resembles setups preceding Bitcoin's major 2024 rallies, with spot CVD data confirming strong underlying demand at current $108,000 levels.

Macro Factors That Could Accelerate the Rally

While the technical outlook appears strong, external variables remain in play: • ETF inflows continue breaking records with 【$588 million】 June inflows • Geopolitical tensions persist as dollar alternatives gain appeal • Institutional adoption metrics show 37% quarter-over-quarter growth

Market structure analysis suggests limited resistance until the $111,000 liquidity zone, with the $120,000 target becoming technically viable if current support holds. As exchange reserves dwindle and derivatives markets stabilize, the conditions for another leg up appear to be consolidating - though as always in crypto markets, volatility remains the only certainty.