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Traders across global markets are closely monitoring today's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with Bitcoin investors particularly attuned to any unexpected policy shifts. While consensus suggests the Fed will maintain current interest rates at 4%, market analysts speculate that a surprise cut could propel Bitcoin toward the $140,000 mark — a 19% increase from its current $117,600 valuation.
The meeting occurs against a complex economic landscape: ——US GDP grew at a 3% annualized rate in Q2 2025—— 【PPI inflation cooled to 2.3% year-over-year in June】 Meanwhile, recession probability has plummeted from 66% to just 17% since May, according to Polymarket data.
President Trump has publicly pressured the Fed for immediate rate reductions, tweeting "No Inflation! Let people buy, and refinance their homes!" However, CME FedWatch data shows a 97% probability of unchanged rates, leaving Bitcoin's potential rally contingent on an unexpected policy shift.
Three key mechanisms could drive Bitcoin's response: 1. Fixed income alternatives becoming less attractive 2. Increased risk appetite among investors 3. Expansion of money supply (M2) fueling asset purchases
Notably, the $25.4 trillion bond market could see capital reallocation if yields decline. As 8marketcap data shows, Bitcoin's $2.3 trillion market cap remains dwarfed by gold's $22.5 trillion valuation — suggesting significant upside potential.
Previous easing cycles have demonstrated Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity conditions. The cryptocurrency tends to outperform when: ——Real interest rates turn negative—— 【M2 money supply growth exceeds 5% annually】 Corporate borrowing costs decline
Interestingly, while the S&P 500's $56.4 trillion valuation limits its upside, Bitcoin's smaller market size makes it more responsive to capital inflows. This dynamic becomes particularly relevant if the Fed signals a dovish turn.
Achieving this target would require: • $2.78 trillion Bitcoin market cap • Continued institutional adoption • Sustained risk-on sentiment
For context, Nvidia currently commands a $4.36 trillion valuation — nearly double Bitcoin's hypothetical $140K capitalization. This comparison highlights the crypto asset's growth potential relative to traditional tech giants.
Beyond Bitcoin, a rate cut could: 1. Pressure the US dollar index 2. Boost gold and precious metals 3. Revitalize the altcoin market
As of press time, Bitcoin derivatives show modest positioning for volatility, suggesting traders remain cautious despite the $140K possibility. The coming hours will reveal whether the Fed delivers the surprise that could ignite crypto's next major rally.