Historic Data Points to Post-Crash Rally

Bitcoin's 12% flash crash to $102,650 following Middle East tensions has triggered what analysts call a golden buying window. Data spanning 20 geopolitical crises since 2010 reveals BTC typically surges 64.6% within 50 days after such events. The median gain stands at 17.3%, with the 2020 U.S.-Iran conflict delivering 20% returns.

Miners' Metric Confirms Undervaluation

CryptoQuant's Puell Multiple — currently at 1.4 despite BTC's $108,000 peak — signals institutional accumulation. This key indicator, measuring miner revenue against yearly averages, last entered such discount territory during the 2020 COVID crash. Glassnode data shows strong holder support at $97,000-$106,200 cost basis levels.

【Key Metrics】 • 64.6% average post-crisis gain • 1.4 Puell Multiple (discount zone) • $97K 6-month holder cost basis

Geopolitical Pattern Repeats

Bitwise researcher André Dragosch's analysis of conflict events shows BTC's logarithmic performance consistently rebounds after initial dips. The asset outperformed gold and S&P 500 during 80% of crises since 2020. Blockstream CEO Adam Back notes Bitcoin's 2024 rally mirrored an identical setup before the Israel-Iran conflict.

——"This isn't panic selling — it's institutional bargain hunting," remarked a Singapore-based crypto fund manager——

Halving Effect Amplifies Opportunity

April's 50% block reward reduction created unprecedented supply constraints. With miner sell pressure diminished and ETFs absorbing 12x daily new supply, analysts suggest the current dip may represent the last sub-$110K entry point. The Puell Multiple's divergence from price action historically precedes major rallies.

As tensions persist, Bitcoin's 14-year track record as a geopolitical hedge continues attracting capital. Market participants now watch whether history repeats with another double-digit rebound.