Bitwise Executive Challenges Bitcoin's Traditional Market Cycle

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has proposed a bold theory that Bitcoin's next major price surge may arrive in 2026, breaking from its established four-year market cycle pattern. This forecast comes as the cryptocurrency trades at $118,169, showing a 10.17% increase over the past month according to Nansen data.

Three Factors Reshaping Bitcoin's Trajectory

Hougan cites multiple reasons why the halving cycle may no longer dictate Bitcoin's performance:

1. Diminishing halving impact — Each four-year event becomes "half as important" to market dynamics

2. Favorable monetary policy — Potential Federal Reserve rate cuts under political pressure

3. Regulatory clarity — Reduced volatility from improved oversight and institutional participation

Institutional Adoption Changes the Game

The Bitwise executive notes a fundamental shift in market behavior: "Last cycle, whales sold to retail. This time, old whales sell to new long-term whales." This institutionalization suggests the current cycle could extend beyond historical patterns, with Hougan predicting "a good few years" ahead rather than a short-term peak.

——"The long-term pro-crypto forces will overwhelm the classic four-year cycle forces," Hougan stated emphatically——

Potential Risks on the Horizon

While generally bullish, Hougan identifies Bitcoin treasury companies as a concern. These firms, which accumulate BTC through stock issuance or debt, could face significant challenges if prices decline sharply. VanEck has similarly warned about potential capital erosion in this emerging sector.

Analysts Divided on Cycle Theory

The cryptocurrency community remains split on whether Bitcoin will follow its historical pattern:

• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declares the four-year cycle "dead"

• Rekt Capital maintains October 2025 could still mark the cycle peak

• Hougan envisions a "sustained steady boom" rather than dramatic spikes

Market Indicators to Watch

As of July 2025, several factors suggest Bitcoin's trajectory may differ from past cycles:

• 【$118,169】current price with steady 30-day growth

• Increasing institutional participation

• Evolving regulatory landscape in major markets

While acknowledging potential volatility, Hougan's analysis points to 2026 as potentially Bitcoin's next breakthrough year, challenging conventional wisdom about cryptocurrency market cycles. The coming months will test whether institutional adoption has truly rewritten Bitcoin's historical patterns or merely delayed its cyclical behavior.