Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Geopolitical Developments

Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience on June 18, climbing back to $105,000 during Wall Street trading hours. The recovery followed unexpected revelations from former US President Donald Trump regarding diplomatic contacts with Iran. Market observers noted the cryptocurrency's continued sensitivity to Middle East tensions, with the price having dipped to $103,857 earlier in the session.

Mixed Signals From Washington

Trump's comments about Iran reaching out for dialogue provided temporary relief to markets. "I told them it's very late," the former president stated during an impromptu press appearance, though he declined to predict the conflict's duration. The remarks came alongside fresh criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whom Trump called "a stupid person" for maintaining current interest rates.

【Market Data】BTC/USD 1-hour chart showed a 1.2% rebound following the comments, with trading volume spiking 18% above the 24-hour average.

Fed Decision Looms Large

All eyes remain focused on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concluding June 18. Trading firm QCP Capital warned in a market note: "This is no ordinary inflation fight—geopolitical instability creates fresh upside risks." CME Group's FedWatch Tool currently shows a 98% probability of rates holding steady.

——Analysts anticipate the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance despite political pressure——

Crypto Market Positioning

Order book analysis reveals concentrated bid support near $103,000, with traders anticipating potential liquidity grabs. Notable market observer Skew highlighted: "Perpetual positioning remains defensive, with shorts accumulating near current levels." CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps indicate $112 million in potential short liquidations if BTC reclaims $106,500.

The market's technical setup shows:

• RSI bouncing from neutral 52 level
• Futures funding rates turning positive after 36 hours negative
• Spot CVD showing renewed buyer interest

Macro Crosscurrents Intensify

Beyond crypto markets, traditional assets face multiple headwinds. Recent US unemployment data met expectations, avoiding additional inflation concerns. However, escalating trade tariffs and energy market volatility continue creating uncertainty. ——Some analysts suggest digital assets may benefit from this environment as a hedge——

As the trading day progresses, market participants await:

1. FOMC rate decision (18:00 UTC)
2. Powell press conference (18:30 UTC)
3. Weekly options expiry (20:00 UTC)

【Final Note】This analysis contains no investment recommendations. Cryptocurrency trading involves substantial risk, and participants should conduct independent research before making decisions.