Bitcoin's Profit Surge Signals Potential Correction

With 98% of Bitcoin's circulating supply now in profit, the cryptocurrency market shows strong bullish sentiment. However, historical patterns suggest this could precede short-term volatility. Glassnode data reveals the profit/loss ratio has spiked 156% since late June, crossing into what analysts term a "cautiously optimistic" zone.

The $200,000 Forecast Gains Traction

Multiple analysts now predict Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by late 2025. Stockmoney Lizards identifies a potential breakout from a multi-year channel, with technical targets at $140,000 short-term. Bernstein Research attributes this outlook to institutional demand through spot ETFs and corporate treasury adoption.

【Key Metric】BTC's realized profit ratio currently sits at 2.8, significantly above the 2.4 threshold that typically signals increased selling pressure.

Market Mechanics Behind the Rally

The current uptrend follows Bitcoin's 590% surge from its 2022 low of $15,500. Notably:

- Supply in profit jumped from 87% to 98% in under two weeks

- January's similar profit levels preceded a 32% price correction

- Institutional players appear to be accumulating positions

——Glassnode analysts caution: "Continued demand remains essential to sustain this rally"——

Technical Perspectives Diverge

While most analysts agree on long-term bullish trends, short-term predictions vary:

• Stockmoney Lizards: $140K → $200K progression

• Mags: $155K Fibonacci target first

• 21st Capital: Q4 2025 range of $130K-$200K

The market faces competing forces between profit-taking incentives and growing institutional participation. As of Wednesday, BTC trades around $107,000, with traders watching for either consolidation or continuation patterns.

Macro Factors in Play

External elements influencing Bitcoin's trajectory include:

- Potential US dollar weakness from trade policies

- Spot ETF flows maintaining steady demand

- Historical halving cycle effects typically peaking 12-18 months post-event

【Market Watch】The next critical resistance level sits at $109,000, last tested in April before the previous correction.