The rapid rise of Bitcoin Knots nodes has ignited concerns about a potential chain split that could destabilize Bitcoin's market value. With Knots nodes growing 638% since January 2025 to reach 13.24% of the network, the stage is set for a technical showdown that echoes Bitcoin's 2017 fork crisis.

Node Wars: The Growing Divide

Bitcoin Knots, the alternative client developed by Luke Dashjr, has seen its node count explode from 394 to 2,909 in just six months. This configurable software now represents 【13.24%】 of all Bitcoin nodes according to June 19 data from coin.dance. The surge began in May 2025 as Core developers proposed stricter transaction relay policies, particularly targeting OP_RETURN data storage.

——This isn't just about software preferences—it's a philosophical battle for Bitcoin's soul—— notes blockchain analyst Michael Tabone. The 2017 split that created Bitcoin Cash demonstrated how technical disagreements can fracture the community when 5-10% of nodes diverge.

October Showdown Looms

Core's planned October update would implement "minimally permissive" relay rules that could marginalize non-financial transactions. Knots maintains neutral policies unless manually configured, making it the preferred client for those opposing Core's growing influence over network governance.

Historical patterns suggest trouble ahead. The 2017 fork saw BTC drop 5.6% before rallying 49% in August. However, today's market conditions differ dramatically with institutional investors and ETFs now holding 【$76 billion】 in Bitcoin exposure according to CoinShares data.

Market Impact Scenarios

If Knots maintains its current growth trajectory, projections show it could power 23% of nodes by October—the largest divergence from Core since Bitcoin Cash's creation. Market analysts warn this could trigger:

1. Short-term volatility exceeding 2017's 5.6% drop

2. Prolonged uncertainty affecting institutional adoption

3. Potential creation of a new Bitcoin variant

——The real risk isn't the technology—it's the perception of instability—— cautions Fidelity Digital Assets in a recent memo. With Bitcoin's price already sensitive to macroeconomic factors, a visible network schism could compound existing market pressures.

As the October update deadline approaches, all eyes remain on whether Core and Knots developers can find common ground—or whether history will repeat with potentially greater consequences for Bitcoin's valuation and mainstream acceptance.